This edition of the BUlletin juxtaposes themes of change and disorder with the celebration of a number of institutional anniversaries, symbolic of endurance. Where is the avalanche of claims and insolvencies expected to emerge from COVID-19?The picture so far is uneven across geographies, sectors and business linesAnd for the future? Backgrounders - December 5, 2022. Incumbent PM Pedro Sanchez is trailing the favourite centre-right Peoples Party in opinion polls. Our research and analysis have helped the world's leading companies navigate challenges and seize opportunities for over 100 years. . /Resources << Geopolitical events are a key driver of economic and business decisions. The labour force is likely to be somewhat smaller for years ahead, as an unprecedented number of workers chose early retirement during early lockdowns while others seem reluctant ever to return to jobs they regard as high-risk in light of the pandemic. COP28 will take place in Dubai (UAE). We detail the key geopolitical events over the next year in the table below. /CropBox [0 0 595.2 841.92] Recent events denote a much different geopolitical landscape than what was originally expected when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine one year ago. \jKVBJQ[B=BUyHps>f|rsjN8 :L US President Joe Biden enters 2022 with low approval ratings, with voters blaming his government rather than the Fed for elevated inflation. For Other APAC Countries, this material is issued for Institutional Investors only (or professional/sophisticated /qualified investors, as such term may apply in local jurisdictions). << Continuity and Change in the Rise of Brazil. /G3 45 0 R In Switzerland, this document is marketing material. Top 11 Geopolitical Risks for 2022 0000 by Global Risk Insights, January 5, 2022 Top Geopolitical Risks for 2022 Below is a flurry of thoughts about the year ahead from a geopolitical risk vantage point. Finland and Swedens application to NATO will further solidify the split in Arctic governance, dividing the Arctic Council between NATO states and Russia, and thus undermining chances for the post-Cold War management mechanism to recover anytime soon. In the two decades before the pandemic, global supply chains became sophisticated, low margin and highly vulnerable as companies drove down costs, relying on just-in-time models and sole suppliers. The Conference Board and torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board. Track the latest short-, medium-, and long-term growth outlooks for 77 economies. >> (iii) are the relevant sophistication level and/or type of audience intended for your respective country or jurisdiction identified below. We are not currently buying Russian . >> A plurality of the audience thought that the U.S. midterm elections will have the greatest impact on Asian geopolitics in 2022, perhaps reflecting concern about the prospects for sustained U.S. leadership in the region. 13 Major Events in 2022 That Could Change Europe's Economy in the World . /F3 29 0 R endobj Fitch Solutions welcomes you to our annual World of Worries which will be held as a virtual event featuring a live virtual panel, interactive polling and a live Q&A session. /Font << /G7 47 0 R The first anniversary of the Ukraine conflict is likely to see an escalation of fighting depending on weather conditions and conflict dynamics. /Length 1242 >> Any distribution, by whatever means, of the information within and related material to persons other than those referred to above is strictly prohibited. of 2017 concerning Promoting and Introducing Regulations. meetings shown are those accompanied by press conferences. /S /Transparency With increased economic and information nationalism on Earth, it is only a matter of time before claims of territoriality reach beyond land, sea and airspace. While developed states will continue to be buoyed by strong household savings, cheap money and supportive fiscal policy, they will nevertheless be subject to turbulence. But can Chinas 180 degree shift in priorities from zero-COVID to economic growth deliver? Registered office Amstelplein 1, 1096 HA, Amsterdam, Tel: 020 549 5200, Tel: 31-20-549-5200. /Tabs /S In the UK and Non-European Economic Area (EEA) countries: this is Issued by BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. /CreationDate (D:20220705215933+01'00') >> This refers to when Turkey (formerly Ottoman Empire) as part of a First World War agreement formally renounced claims to Mosul province, Cyprus and other territories in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey's Economic Troubles. /F3 29 0 R 200010143N). If these measures result in slower growth, Xi will not care. Emerging market corporate borrowers could suffer as a result. Track the status of job markets across the US through online job listings. /Annots [75 0 R 76 0 R 77 0 R] Co., Ltd. (Financial Instruments Business Operator: The Kanto Regional Financial Bureau. BrazilBrazil will spend much of 2022 in campaign mode, with President Jair Bolsonaro aiming to break legal restrictions on state finances to keep millions of his citizens out of poverty and his slim re-election prospects alive. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx. He will hope that economic recovery and the taming of COVID-19 will revive his fortunes and so spare him the midterm Congressional reverses that are common for a sitting president. /Type /Group The impact of those programmes is unlikely to be felt by the time the November midterms come around. /Annots [40 0 R] /Type /Page Oil producing nationsOil producers across the world will greet with relief the prospect of higher prices, but not all are well-placed to benefit. The Website has not made, and expressly disclaims, any representations with respect to any forward-looking statements. << >> While seemingly contradictory, this both increases the risks of short, sharp clashes between North Korean and South Korean (or even U.S. or Japanese) forces or assets and decreases the risk of rapid escalation to nuclear conflict or all-out war. /GS5 22 0 R China has started to deleverage its property sector, and while this will eventually put the country on a more solid financial footing it will certainly result in weaker GDP growth. Neither the CMA or any other authority or regulator located in KSA has approved this information. Top-level appointments will consolidate his power. The Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of 2022 Luminae Group Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. /Annots [69 0 R] /Contents [11 0 R 12 0 R 13 0 R 14 0 R 15 0 R 16 0 R 17 0 R 18 0 R 19 0 R 20 0 R] /Resources << In China,this may not be distributed to individuals resident in the People's Republic of China ("PRC", for such purposes, excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) or entities registered in the PRC unless such parties have received all the required PRC government approvals to participate in any investment or receive any investment advisory or investment management services. << /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] /StructParents 0 In Canada: public distribution. >> Past performance is not a guide to future performance. /MediaBox [0 0 595.2 841.92] South Africa, Russia and China will hold military exercises on the east coast of South Africa. THE HILL 1625 K STREET, NW SUITE 900 WASHINGTON DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 TEL | 202-628-8503 FAX. These are relatively low-cost battlefield weapons that give Pyongyang a greater ability to strike at military bases, depots and staging grounds in South Korea. Join facilitator John Busch and share your thoughts on current events at this monthly discussion group. /S /Transparency Sudans political transition has been derailed and will not easily be set aright, while Kenya and Somalia face elections in 2022 that seem certain to threaten stability. << Evaluate and optimize the impact of corporate citizenship programs. In South Korea, this material is for distribution to the Qualified Professional Investors (as defined in the Financial Investment Services and Capital Market Act and its sub-regulations). Geopolitical Calendar | Control Risks Our Thinking Geopolitical calendar Geopolitical calendar Look ahead to the geopolitical events that will shape your world. /Contents [54 0 R 55 0 R 56 0 R] >> Armed anti-coup groups have carried out attacks against military forces around this symbolic date. >> >> Los Angeles Events - January 2023. /Length 2 43288. /F5 31 0 R It has inspired similar attacks globally in recent years. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows . Spain takes over from Czechia in the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, until 31 December 2023. The NATO Summit will take place in Vilnius (Lithuania). In compiling a list of the top five geopolitically significant events of 2022, the top three were rather obvious Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's military response to House Speaker Nancy. In Latin America, institutional investors and financial intermediaries only (not for public distribution). /XObject << The year 2022 will mark an important step back to normality, but COVID-19 retains the ability to change the course of countries, regions and people., This article was published in the Berne Union Yearbook, December 2021. Your name, email address and other personal details will be processed in accordance with BlackRocks Privacy Policy for your specific country which you may read by accessing our website athttps://www.blackrock.com. The 2019 Christchurch attack remains the most significant terrorist attack in New Zealand and is among one of the most prominent right-wing extremist incidents. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, January 2023. /StructParents 9 The Bank of Japan events shown are followed by the publication of the central banks outlook report. The Mississippi River, for . Turkey has long sought to assert its own regional interests and sphere of interest, and has been willing to both cooperate with and challenge big powers, carving out its own space between Europe and the United States, Russia and China, and reaching from the Eastern Mediterranean through the South Caucasus and into Central Asia. Leaders in both the US and China, if given the choice, would prefer to focus on domestic matters. Governments that can easily service their debts, at a time when investment needs are considerable, have an incentive to borrow still more. Coupled with Japans shifting defense posture and continued Chinese military expansion, it portends a more contentious and unstable Northeast Asia in the coming year or two. Note: European Central Bankmeetings shown are those accompanied by press conferences. /GS8 21 0 R April 12, 2022 Fed Projects Hawkishness Amid War, Pandemic Crises March 16, 2022 Ukraine Invasion Begins to Impact CPI March 10, 2022 PRESS RELEASES & IN THE NEWS Sustainability Is the Pathway to Supply Chain Resilience Think tank: War in Ukraine exerts economic effects Access New Insights on the War in Ukraine Primary tabs. You may leave this Website when you access certain links on this Website. >> Here you can find a 360 view of geopolitical crises, starting with the Russo-Ukrainian war, and insights for whats ahead. 2 0 obj General disclosure: This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The Contents do not purport to be complete and is subject to change. Tools to help manage corporate governance, sustainability, and philanthropy programs. This event took place on 02/26/2023. The quick, huge stimulus programmes he desired were delayed and thinned out by a handful of fellow Democrats in Congress. On the one hand, this paves the way for China and other near Arctic states to call for a new, internationalized system of Arctic management, just one piece of a broader push to redefine global norms and systems. endobj Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be one of the few leaders actively seeking trade deals and energy partnerships around the world, though he will worry that rising interest rates and oil prices could trigger a capital outflow and send the rupee tumbling, which would strain Indian corporations who have borrowed in foreign currency. In Australia, public distribution. Systematic retrieval of content from this Website to create or compile, directly or indirectly, a collection, compilation, database or directory (whether through robots, spiders, automatic devices or manual processes) or creating links to this Website is strictly prohibited. >> >> /ExtGState << Some reconstituted supply chains will be shorter, thicker and have greater redundancy. 9 0 obj Investing involves risks. /Kids [4 0 R 5 0 R 6 0 R 7 0 R 8 0 R 9 0 R 10 0 R] His predecessor, Luiz Incio Lula da Silva, looks certain to top the first-round presidential poll and potentially to win it outright. /Font << Supporting trade and investment since 1934. This pattern is likely to continue in 2022, not least because the richer world is more advanced in vaccinating people against COVID-19. Australia has witnessed a perfect storm of damaging cyber-attacks, and by looking at what is happening in Australia, businesses around the world can gain critical insights and learn how they can best prepare to identify, predict and mitigate these risks. The coronation marks a historic, albeit symbolic change to the UK monarchy and head of state. In Hong Kong, this material is issued by BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. The anniversary will occur as Northern Ireland's status within the UK and relations with Europe remain under strain as a result of the UK's exit from the EU (which took full effect in 2021). Neither the DFSA or any other authority or regulator located in the GCC or MENA region has approved this information. /Contents [66 0 R 67 0 R 68 0 R] With richer states tending towards booster shots, availability will not increase as quickly as many in the developing world might hope. /F12 58 0 R /GS8 21 0 R endobj The The war has now ground on for a year. The UN Water Conference will focus on the linkages between water, health, sustainable development, climate resilience, and environmental cooperation. 11 0 obj General elections, Sindh and Balochistan provincial elections, Seerist Core: your essential risk monitoring platform, ESG Country Monitor: understand your material exposure, Membership: a better way to Control Risks, Sanctions Country Monitor: intelligence on sanctions risks globally. /Type /Page Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello construct a measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions, and examine its evolution and economic effects since 1900. Spain will hold general elections. By entering this site, you are agreeing that you have reviewed and agreed to the terms contained herein, including any legal or regulatory restrictions, and have consented to the collection, use and disclosure of your personal data as set out in the Privacy section referred to below. The EU implement its ban on Russian refined oil products, including diesel, raising the prospect of shortages due to low domestic production capabilities. << Berne Union Members covered a record USD 2.48 trillion of new business in 2018. Despite the challenges there are many positive opportunities emerging for Africa today, Curated by the BU Sub-Saharan Africa Working Group, authors for this special edition of the BUlletin explore areas of growth and the role of different sources of international finance tapping this, exploring the multiple secondary impacts of both the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, from sovereign risk in Africa, to energy security, political violence and the private CPRI market, Shocks and short-circuits: The re-wiring of global trade. In the DIFC this material can be distributed in and from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) by BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited Dubai Branch which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). /F1 27 0 R These events are normally widely followed by investors. Although the world is still struggling to emerge . Please read this page before proceeding as it explains certain restrictions imposed by law on the distribution of this information and the jurisdictions in which our products and services are authorised to be offered or sold. %PDF-1.3 Registered in England and Wales No. /StructParents 0 /F2 28 0 R In Australia, issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975 AFSL 230 523 (BIMAL). Fill out the form to receive expert analysis and commentary on the latest developments. Thank you, you have successfully been signed up for our Geopolitics Hub updates. Those with strong extractive sectors seemed poised to benefit from strong demand for commodities, albeit with the risk of price volatility. Countries governed by coalitions, in particular, could struggle under these pressures. Save. /Parent 2 0 R /F5 65 0 R Since 1999, we've been a leading provider of financial technology, and our clients turn to us for the solutions they need when planning for their most important goals. Vladimir Putin has cleared away theimpediments that prevent him from remaining in power after 2024, and the politicking that accompanied uncertainty has died down. /F7 23 0 R In China, this material may not be distributed to individuals resident in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC, for such purposes, excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) or entities registered in the PRC unless such parties have received all the required PRC government approvals to participate in any investment or receive any investment advisory or investment management services. In the U.S. and Canada, this material is intended for public distribution. Control Risks Group Holdings Ltd registration no.01548306. /CS /DeviceRGB Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. /CS /DeviceRGB /GS5 22 0 R /F7 24 0 R Find Events | Sports. . Registered office: 29th floor, Olaya Towers Tower B, 3074 Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz St., Olaya District, Riyadh 12213 8022, KSA, Tel: +966 11 838 3600. A summit between the EU and Ukraine will take place in Kyiv (Ukraine). If you are unsure about the meaning of any of the information provided, please consult your financial or other professional adviser. /Resources << >> Turkeys facilitation of the Russia/Ukraine grain deal highlights the rising role of middle powers in a multipolar world. Military exercises on the latest developments prefer to focus on domestic matters in Vilnius ( Lithuania ) over next. Suffer as a result ( not for public distribution ( iii ) are the relevant sophistication level and/or of! 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